17 Dec 10

Chasing a flush on the net – Sometimes the numbers just do not add up!

There’s an age old debate in poker – really should you chase a flush? First of all we need to define what we mean here by "chasing a flush online."

Chasing anything in Hold em poker may be the practice of gambling to stay in a hands in the hope that you will make a much better hand, even despite the fact that you might have absolutely nothing at the time. So chasing a flush signifies gambling which you will have the card or card that you just have to total your flush hand on the turn or river. You can not chase a flush before the flop because at that time you only have 2 cards so the flush isn’t on.

So let’s say you happen to be wagering one of the major poker internet sites on the web, you’ve been dealt the Ace and nine of spades and you have paid to see the flop.

The flop is twos seven spades Kd and one of your opponents comes out wagering strongly with a fair sized raise, what do you do?

Initial of all ask your self what type of hand you’re up against. The possibilities are triples, a different flush draw, a pair of Kings or a total bluff, so as it stands you are only succeeding against the bluff with your Ace. About the other hands when you hit a spade in the last two cards you’ve the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or four of a kind.

Within the face of it you may possibly assume that statistically you have about a 50-50 probability of hitting your spade, after all there’s two cards to come and 4 suits so there must be about a half possibility, appropriate?


You already have 2 of the spades in your hands and there’s another 2 showing to the table, so you know 5 cards and 4 of them are spades. That signifies you might have 9 spades left accessible out of the forty seven cards you have not seen, which is only a forty two percent chance of catching your flush.

If you do bet within the turn and don’t generate your flush, what do you do then? You’ve possibly now become pot-committed, you have put so significantly into the pot that you just may as effectively bet again to the river unless there is a big increase or all-in towards you, but now your odds of making the flush have dropped dramatically to only twenty one percent.

Except what of that other factor, the mysterious internet poker syndrome? What I imply by that’s despite the fact that you statistically have a forty two % probability of creating a flush, is that what in fact happens in reality? If you bet the very same hand at the same net poker table 100 times would you acquire a flush forty two times? From my personal understanding I doubt it. Flushes seem to come around a great deal much less frequently than 42 out of 100 times!

That’s just my own opinion and I am positive the poker sites would tell you a various story, except the way I see it is 42 % will be the incredibly Best you’re ever going to receive and you might nicely have a lot much less chance than that of hitting your flush.

Bottom line? Chasing a flush on-line is really a quite risky method that sucks you in and over commits you, without giving you sufficient of a likelihood of pulling out the winning hand.

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